Circular AI Capital Map — methodology snapshot, 2026-09-02

The bounded circularity score is the share of dollar-denominated headline commitment value supported by a disclosed return path. Start with each commitment—for example, Company A paying Company B—and ask whether other disclosed commitments carry value back from Company B to Company A. The return can be direct or pass through one other company. The amount counted cannot exceed the smallest commitment in that loop. If Company A commits $100B to Company B but only $20B is disclosed in the return direction, $20B is treated as loop-supported. When several return routes exist, only the strongest one supports that starting commitment.

The binding variant includes definitive agreements only. The announced variant includes definitive and non-binding announcements. Capacity arrangements stated only in gigawatts are excluded because they cannot be added to a dollar denominator. Reporting-period comparisons use calendar quarter-end cutoffs and include a relationship on its public announcement date. They are disclosure snapshots, not audited filing measures.

Headline commitments are not cash flows and often cover different or undisclosed terms. SEC backlog and remaining-performance-obligation facts generally do not identify the customer needed to attribute a return path, so no “contracted circularity” score is published. The result measures disclosed network structure, not intent, economic substance, or wrongdoing. It is coverage-sensitive and will change as the ledger expands.