The AI buildout is increasingly financed by the sellers of the equipment,
the buyers of the output, and the credit markets — sometimes all three at
once.
A chip vendor funds a model lab. The lab commits spend to a cloud
provider. The cloud provider buys the vendor's equipment. Each leg can be
rational on its own. Together they make the origin and the quality of the
demand harder to read.
The analysis separates three questions: who pays whom, what form the
commitment takes, and how much announced demand is connected to capital
supplied by the recipient.
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Financing
Cloud and compute
Chips and capacity
Non-binding
Thickness = disclosed dollar value.
Visible relationships
Flow
Headline
Category
Status
Action
Constructed network measure
Circularity score
2026 Q2 disclosure snapshot
12.2%Binding circularity
$102B of $833.4B in
definitive headline commitments is supported by a disclosed return path.
Score definition
Connected commitments—not recycled cash.
For each dollar-denominated arrow, the score looks for a path back to
its payer through no more than two additional relationships. The amount
counted is capped at the weakest leg, so a small investment cannot make
an entire large commercial contract circular.
Binding score
12.2%
All announcements
10.9%
Capacity-only deals
Excluded
Interpretation
The binding score exceeds the all-announcement score because the
$100B NVIDIA letter of intent enlarges the announced denominator without
adding a disclosed dollar path back to NVIDIA. Non-binding value therefore
increases the network total without increasing loop-supported value.
Filing-period comparison
When circularity enters the network
BindingAll announcements
Period
Binding
All announced
Loop-supported value
What changed
2025 Q3
0.0%
0.0%
$0B
No disclosed dollar return path.
2025 Q4
0.0%
0.0%
$0B
Commitments expand, but remain one-way.
2026 Q1
10.5%
9.3%
$76B
Amazon and OpenAI create the first bounded loop.
2026 Q2
12.2%
10.9%
$102B
Amazon and Anthropic add a second bounded loop.
2025 Q3
Binding
0.0%
All announced
0.0%
Loop-supported
$0B
No disclosed dollar return path.
2025 Q4
Binding
0.0%
All announced
0.0%
Loop-supported
$0B
Commitments expand, but remain one-way.
2026 Q1
Binding
10.5%
All announced
9.3%
Loop-supported
$76B
Amazon and OpenAI create the first bounded loop.
2026 Q2
Binding
12.2%
All announced
10.9%
Loop-supported
$102B
Amazon and Anthropic add a second bounded loop.
Current two-way structures
The relationships driving the score
Amazon ↔ OpenAI
$38Bmatched loop capacity
$88B of gross disclosed commitments runs in both directions; the smaller direction sets the cap.
Amazon ↔ Anthropic
$13Bmatched loop capacity
$113B of gross disclosed commitments runs in both directions; the smaller direction sets the cap.
Method and scope
The score starts with each disclosed dollar commitment—for example,
Company A paying Company B—and asks whether other disclosed commitments
carry value back from Company B to Company A. That return can be direct
or pass through one other company.
Only the amount supported by the smallest commitment in the loop counts.
If Company A commits $100B to Company B, but only $20B is disclosed in
the return direction, $20B—not $100B—is treated as loop-supported. When
several return routes exist, the calculation uses the strongest one and
does not count the same starting commitment twice.
Binding score: definitive agreements only.
All-announcement score: definitive agreements plus
letters of intent and memoranda. Capacity agreements stated only in
gigawatts are excluded because they cannot be added to a dollar total.
Each period is a calendar quarter-end snapshot. A relationship enters
the calculation on its public announcement date. This is a constructed
network measure, not an audited filing metric; SEC backlog and remaining
performance obligations usually do not name the customer needed to map
a return relationship.
Capex and cash generation
Every figure here comes from a filed 10-K cash flow statement, pulled
through the SEC's XBRL company-facts API. The ratio is
cash capital expenditure divided by net cash from operating activities,
for each company's own fiscal year.
The direction is the same everywhere. Microsoft has gone from spending 27
cents of capex per dollar of operating cash flow to 63. Alphabet has gone
from 34 to 56, Meta from 38 to 60, Amazon from 62 to 94.
Oracle has crossed over: 102% in FY2025 and 174% in
FY2026, meaning it spent $1.74 of capital expenditure for every dollar of
cash the business generated. The difference has to come from somewhere,
and that somewhere is the capital stack.
Capital expenditure includes spending outside AI infrastructure because
the statements do not provide a complete AI-specific breakout. The ratio
measures spending relative to internally generated cash, not the purpose
of each expenditure.
SEC company facts
Inspect the filings
844 normalized facts · 9 public issuers
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Period end
Fiscal year
Value
Filed
SEC data label
Source
Annual 10-K observations only. Backlog is shown as a concept candidate, not automatically as management guidance.
Limitations
Private companies disclose little. Headline values often span uncertain
terms, and an announcement can describe capacity rather than minimum
spend. Equity ownership changes over time. The ledger captures disclosed
relationships — not side letters, pricing, utilisation, intent, or the
ultimate source of every dollar.
Method and sources
Values are annualised only when a term is disclosed. Every numeric record
resolves to a source. Binding status follows the underlying document: a
letter of intent never becomes a contract because it is widely reported.
